10 major Ardennes narratives to follow 🍺🏹 👵
From a possible alliance against Pogačar, to course changes, transfers, wildcard picks and the dynamics within the women's peloton
Hi Subscribers,
The Ardennes kick off this weekend with Amstel Gold Race, followed by La Flèche Wallonne and Liège-Bastogne-Liège. Ahead of the action, here are 10 talking points and narratives to follow: from how the opposition could race against Tadej Pogačar, and how he’ll stack up after Paris-Roubaix, to the battle between SD-Worx, Visma and FDJ-SUEZ in the women’s race.
There’s also analysis on Remco Evenepoel, possible race tactics for Liège, a look at the vital course changes in two races, and several wildcard riders to watch.
Daniel 🫶
Pogačar targets triple, effects after Roubaix are unclear🔮
The most obvious starting point is the situation surrounding Tadej Pogačar, who enters the Ardennes targeting the triple crown of Amstel, Flèche, and Liège.
Typically, riders have a steady build-up to the Ardennes, and even if the Tour of Flanders is on a rider’s schedule, Paris-Roubaix rarely precedes the trio of races that make up the Ardennes. Having Paris-Roubaix in the middle of his schedule - along with the physical toll he endured during that race - introduces a fascinating dynamic to the next round of Classics, particularly for a rider with his slender physique.
Regardless of his results and talent, he and his team are venturing into the unknown. This situation is not solely influenced by the aftermath of his crash in Paris-Roubaix but also by the level of fatigue he may have accumulated on the cobbles. He was exhausted by the end of Roubaix, and the lingering effects from last Sunday could impact the world champion’s performance at Amstel Gold in terms of his freshness, while by the time Liège rolls around, he could be racing on fumes or totally recovered.
In the long term, if the wheels do fall off during the Ardennes, the question will be whether the Slovenian sacrifices those races to focus once more on Paris-Roubaix and the cobbles.
Remco’s return will set the tone for the next few months 🇧🇪
The Belgian starts his season at De Brabantse Pijl - La Flèche Brabançonne on Friday after a long injury layoff that stretches back to December.
He’s called the latest period of inactivity the hardest of his career, and with the Tour de France just a few months away, there isn’t room for another setback.
He must hit every note possible between now and the Grand Depart in Lille, but few will assume that Evenepoel is starting in De Brabantse Pijl just to make up the numbers. He’ll be competitive, of that there’s no doubt, so the only question is how quickly he can reach his top form ahead of Liège-Bastogne-Liège, a race he’s never lost from the two starts he has on his palmares.
Last summer, when building up for the Tour de France, he blew hot and cold in the Critérium du Dauphiné, winning a stage before finishing seventh. It’s plausible that we’ll see something similar over the next week, with natural ability and recent training catapulting Evenepoel into contention but leaving him short of that final one or two per cent needed to win. Such a scenario would still represent a step forward for the 25-year-old, but a win would be a huge boost before he turns his attention to the Tour de Romandie later in the month.
What’ll also be intriguing, especially given Jonas Vingegaard’s slow start to the year, is how close Evenepoel can get to Pogačar. After the Ardennes, we’re not going to see the pair race each other until the Critérium du Dauphiné in June, so the pre-Tour narrative will be directly affected by what happens in the next three outings.
Will the Il Lombardia blueprint be followed? 🇮🇹
I’m really interested to know the tactics for taking on Pogačar and whether teams will revert to what we saw last year in Il Lombardia, when a massive shift saw several squads fight tooth and nail to put their second-best riders in the early break.